International independent experts have assessed the development of the Curonian Nord offshore wind farm in Lithuania
Even though the offshore wind market currently faces headwinds, the Curonian Nord offshore wind project developed by Ignitis Renewables in Lithuania is well-managed and aligns with industry best practices. These conclusions were made by a research and consultancy company for the global renewables industry, Wood Mackenzie, which has analysed the project's timeline, investment assumptions and risk management practices against global and European offshore wind industry benchmarks.
An independent assessment of the Curonian Nord offshore wind farm was initiated by the Ignitis Group Supervisory Board in April 2025, which formed a working group dedicated to carry out a comprehensive and independent assessment of the Curonian Nord project. The independent experts from Wood Mackenzie, engaged by the working group, worked autonomously from the Group's management to assess the project’s investments, risks, and timeline.
“In addition to its regular oversight of strategic projects, including Curonian Nord, we formed a working group to perform a comprehensive assessment of the offshore wind farm project. We engaged Wood Mackenzie – a leading global provider of data, analytics and consultations for renewables – to deliver an independent, fact-based, transparent and comprehensive assessment,” says Ignitis Group Supervisory Board Chair, Alfonso Faubel.
The assessment conclusions confirm that the investments made to date are reasonable and not higher than benchmark levels compared to projects in Denmark, Belgium and United Kingdom. By May 2025, investments in Curonian Nord amounted to 46,060 EUR/MW and were lower compared to the average investments in comparable projects analysed (82,641 EUR/MW).
The assessment also indicates that the actions taken by Ignitis Renewables in 2023–2025 while developing the Curonian Nord project, including surveys, designs and procurement, were necessary and aligned with industry standards. These are essential steps in implementing any offshore wind farm project. The analysis also confirmed strong risk governance framework that aligns with market practice, the project schedule is well-managed, but the company received a recommendation to strengthen its horizon scanning processes that would enable earlier identification of supply chain constraints and shifts.
The assessment also indicates that the offshore wind market currently faces headwinds. Even though there's a push for ambitious growth, the offshore wind industry struggles to keep pace. Supply chain bottlenecks, materially increased components prices, execution risks and macro-economic pressures have led to project cancellations, failed tenders and declining developer risk appetite worldwide. For example, wind turbine prices have increased by 27% from 2023 to 2030, and installation vessel shortages have driven a 62% increase in vessel-related expenses, a market-wide challenge. Taking this into account, Wood Mackenzie's assessment suggests that Ignitis Renewables should closely follow the changes in the cost of major components and installation, the offtake market and re-evaluate the financial assumptions to ensure project’s long-term viability.
It should also be noted that the original bid schedule set by the Government in tender conditions was somewhat aggressive. Therefore, the multiple project implementation scenarios adopted by the project’s team represents a robust approach that aligns with industry standards. Current market struggles affecting offtake agreements, supply chain constraints and financing availability pose greater threats to the FID schedule than technical workstreams.
The Supervisory Board will continue to oversee key strategic projects to ensure value creation and will take actions if necessary.
You can find the assessment report in the attached document. The annexes of the assessment are confidential and not publicly available due to the inside and commercially sensitive information related to Ignitis Group and market intelligence from Wood Mackenzie. Please note that, in the event of any discrepancy between Lithuanian and English versions of the document, the English version shall prevail.
